SCENARIO APPROACH IN FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE BELARUSIAN MECHANICAL ENGINEERING INDUSTRY

The article is devoted to identifying the features and trends of the transformation of mechanical engineering in the Republic of Belarus in modern geo-economic and technological conditions. An economic analysis of the industry development is carried out, the factors that determine the formation of its development trends are identified and described. Scenarios for the further development of mechanical engineering in our country (pessimistic, inertial and optimistic) are developed. The conditions for the implementation of each of the scenarios are shown, the signs that directly or indirectly indicate the onset of a particular scenario are described, the consequences and risks of their implementation are identified.  

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