economicaЭкономическая наука сегодняEconomic Science Today2309-6667Белорусский национальный технический университет10.21122/2309-6667-2025-22-160-170economica-29Research ArticleПЕРВЫЕ ШАГИ В НАУКЕПарадокс Джевонсона, эффект энергетической безопасности и эффект индустриализации развивающихся стран как факторы роста угольной промышленностиJEVONSON PARADOX, ENERGY SECURITY EFFECT AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES INDUSTRIALIZATION EFFECT AS DRIVERS OF COAL INDUSTRY GROWTHДинЦ.DingJianhui

аспирант кафедры «Экономика и право» 

г. Минск

Postgraduate student of the Department “Economics and Law”

Minsk

economica@bntu.byБелорусский национальный технический университетБеларусьBelarusian National Technical UniversityBelarus202510062026022160170Copyright © Дин Ц., 20262026Дин Ц.Ding J.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://economica.ejournal.by/jour/article/view/29

Статья посвящена исследованию феномена роста угольной промышленности в XXI в. Несмотря на развитие разнообразных способов получения энергии, в том числе из возобновляемых источников, уголь по-прежнему остается ключевым энергоресурсом в мировой энергетике, занимая более трети в энергетическом балансе. Частично этот феномен обусловлен парадоксом Джевонса (эффектом отскока), который, однако, не в состоянии объяснить новый скачок роста добычи, потребления и торговли углем (в 2024 г. стал рекордным), в том числе в странах, которые на протяжении последних десятилетий последовательно сокращали (США, Европа) добычу и потребление угля, с учетом отсутствия радикальных технологических изменений. В статье доказывается, что не менее важными факторами роста угольной промышленности, чем эффект отскока, являются эффект энергетической безопасности и эффект индустриализации развивающихся стран.

This article examines the growth of the coal industry in the 21st century. Despite the development of diverse energy sources, including renewable ones, coal remains a key energy resource in the global energy mix, accounting for more than a third of the energy balance. This phenomenon is partly due to the Jevons paradox (rebound effect), which, however, cannot explain new surge in coal production, consumption, and trade (reaching a record in 2024), including in countries that have consistently reduced coal production and consumption over recent decades (the United States and Europe), given the absence of radical technological change. The article argues that energy security effect and developing countries industrial-ization effect are no less important factors in the coal industry's growth than the rebound effect.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.